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Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions

By: Dan Ariely
Binding: Hardcover
Publisher: HarperCollins Publishers Ltd
ISBN: 0007256523
ISBN-13: 9780007256525
Released: 03 Mar 2008
RRP: £16.99
Average Rating:


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Customer Reviews

Predictably Anecdotal - By: Mr. O. Buxton, 05 Oct 2008
Blame Malcolm Gladwell - but after Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking social psychologists of the type he featuredin that book have been coming out of the woodwork to publishin the pop science marketin alarming numbers figuring, reasonably, enough that there's a bit of money to be made on the side. I'm guessing royalties from articlesin the International Journal of Psychology would palein comparison.

One of the latest is Dan Ariely, whose unique selling point is a horrific accident he sustained as a student Israel which left him with burns to 70% of his body. His book does what it says on the tin, by way of explaining a number of social experiments that he & his colleagues have runin the last few years, loosely themed around the observation that we don't always act as sensibly as logic would dictate.

Which is fine - as you would expect, some of the examples are eyebrow raising - but it really shouldn't be news & it certainly doesn't require Dan Ariely to tell us that our liberal western societies aren't as rational as we like to think (incontrovertible proof of that, not offeredin Ariel's book, being the politicians we elect & the amount of attention & money we collectively devote to cosmetics, fashion, celebrity & professional sport), especially as deeper epistemological examination reveals the idea of "rationality" is incoherent anyway.

But just as some anecdotes are enlightening, the implications of others are not nearly as plain or convincing as Ariel thinks they are, & some of his experiments struck me as being particularly glib, superficial & susceptible to plenty of alternative interpretations.

And what Ariel's book lacks is any further theoretical drive: OK, we re predisposed to behavein silly or odious ways - but what's your point? In what underlying way are our irrational proclivities linked? What conclusions can we draw; what can we learn; what strategies can we adopt to counteract the harmful effects of our fecklessness?

Ariely implies, but doesn't say, that some sort of regulation is required to save us. But given that it was our irrational proclivities by which we arrived at these politicians (and the political institutions through which they organise themselves) I'm not sure he leaves us any better off than when we started.

Olly Buxton
But is rational necessarily good? - By: Secret Spi, 30 Sep 2008
Dan Ariely has written an interesting & thought-provoking book on the behaviour of human beingsin the field of money & commerce. There are some fascinating insights here that we already "knew" from our own behaviour but had maybe put it down to a personal oddity. Now we know, from the experiments of Dan & his colleagues, that we are not alonein our irrationality!

I like the style with which the book is written: it is extrememly readable & Professor Ariely's humanity & humour come throughin large doses, which is refreshing for an academic/business book. The chapters that I found particularly interesting & pertinent were those on social & market norms (why is a gift for your neighbour helping with your house move OK but paying him is not?) & how our dishonesty increases the more steps removed we are from real money (some huge implications for our increasingly cashless society).

But...I started getting annoyed with Dan with his very liberal acceptance that as humans, we cannot be expected to have much self-control. When he starts suggesting that cars for teenagers have built-in warning devices that phone Mum or start playing classical music when the poor dears start getting out of control & breaking the speed limit, I wanted to scream "No! Teenagers shouldn't be allowed to cruise aroundin cars burning up the world's natural resources until their parents judge them to be adult & responsible enough!" Ditto the comments about a credit card with various limits built in.

Finally, I detected a rather odd implication throughout the whole book that rationality was somehow "good" or "desirable" & that irrationality was somehow associated with "poor decisions or wrong choices". I'm not sure that that is always the case. Some of the best decisons are made on the basis of intuition.
Reality is absolutely relative. - By: Robert Morris, 16 Sep 2008

At first glance, the title of Dan Ariely's book seems to be an oxymoron. (It certainly catches one's attention.) Can irrational thought and/or behavior be predicted? Perhaps if it is repetitive? (The judgment & behavior of at least some people can be repetitive & thus predictable.) So I began to read his book with curiosity but also, yes, with some skepticism. Here are a few of my reactions. First, he learned a number of "lessons" from what he calls "experiments"in his life, each of which struck him as being counterintuitive. For example, everything is relative...even when "it shouldn't be"...orin fact isn't. That is, our mind can "play tricks" on us & thus we tend to see what we expect to see, hear what we expect to hear, etc. Images & sounds are relative to their context or frame-of-reference within which we place it. Or consider the frequently expressed observation, "one man's trash is another man's treasure" or one or more of self-serving juxtapositions such as "He's a tightwad whereas I'm frugal...she's narrow-minded whereas I'm a specialist...They're stubborn whereas I stick to my convictions." Ariely's other lessons also, directly or indirectly, involve illusions & delusions of one kind or another. They explain why we can't make ourselves do what we want to do, why we overvalue what we have & especially what we purchase, & "why a 50-cent aspirin can do what a penny aspirin can't."

As I worked my way through the first few chapters, I was reminded of a joke I heard years ago. This fellow arrived justin time to tee off for another round of golf with three friends. They played every Saturday morning. "Hey, I've got great news! Just bought the best hearing aids that money can buy. They cost $8,000 each but they're worth every penny. It's a whole new life for me. Never been happier." "You spent $16,000 on two hearing aids? That seems expensive." "Nah, like I said, worth every penny." "What kind is it?".... The fellow glanced at his watch. "Exactly 7:30."To paraphrase Descartes: It is if I think it is.

Also, Ariely shares what he learned about the differences between conventional economics & behavioral economics. Contrary to "the far-reaching conclusions" that generations of economists have developed "about everything from taxation & health-care policies to the pricing of goods & services," asserts that human beings are far less rational than standard economic theory assumes. "Moreover, these irrational behaviors of ours are neither random nor senseless. They are systematic, & since we repeat them again & again, they are predictable." (Hence this book's title.) Ariely makes a convincing, at times humorous but nonetheless rational argument to support modification of standard economics, "to move it away from naive psychology (which often fails the tests of reason, introspection, & most important - empirical scrutiny)." He collaborated with a number of colleagues when conducting various experiments that enabled them to "slow human behavior to a frame-by-frame narration of events, isolate individual forces, & examine those forces carefully &in detail." The results of the experiments illustrate general principles of human behavior (e.g. the decision-making process) within & beyond the workplace.

Finally, I admire the extent to which Ariely succeedsin explaining the fundamentals of economics & social science for a reader such as I who knows essentially nothing about either. (Oh sure, I have some scraps of information & countless opinions but....) For example,in Chapter 9, Ariely describes an experiment that he conducted with two MIT professors to answer questions that include "How to explain violence? Why does it happen? Is it an outcome of history, or race, or politics - or is there something fundamentally irrationalin us that encourages conflict, that causes us to look at the same event and, depending on our point of view, see itin totally different terms...We came up with a simple test - onein which we would not use religion, politics, or even sports as the indicator. We would use glasses of beer."(I do have extensive prior experience with beer!) The details of this experiment are best revealed within the narrative but I will indicate that the materialin this chapter provides a number of revelations that help to explain "the hidden forces that shape our decisions."

Congratulations to Dan Ariely on a brilliant achievement!
Absolutely fascinating. - By: J. Scott, 30 Jul 2008
I was given this book to review several months ago, & it's been sitting on my 'to do' shelf ever since. I kept procrastinating because... well, it seemed like it would be a very dull read. I didn't even know what 'Behavioral Economics' was, & it didn't exactly sound like a page-turner.

In fact, I've discovered that I couldn't have been more wrong. It *is* a page-turner. I usually picked it up intending to read just one chapter, then didn't set it down until I'd read three or four.

The chapters are quite short & 'bite-sized'.

The book explores a lot of the totally illogical things that we do from day to day. Things that hurt our bank balance, or our health, or our relationship with family or work colleagues. It's full of interesting experiments that have been carried out to back up the thesis, & gives occasional pointers on how get ourselves out of our self-imposed traps.

Not that the 'traps' are always self-imposed. When you read the book, you'll find a trip to the supermarket will be a whole new experience, & you'll never feel quite the same about those 'buy one, get one free' offers. You'll have a much better awareness of how salesmen, advertisers, & probably governments manage to manipulate us so easily.

Definitely recommended for anyone interestedin why we humans do the crazy things we do.
Not as dull as it sounds (is that a compliment?) - By: A. Marczak, 14 Jul 2008
As book titles go, this isn't the catchiest. The subject matter could be construed as dull & narrow, & the weight of the book gives an air of study accompaniment rather than bedtime read.

But wait... luckily the study of behavioural economics requires lots of research & experimentation, & whilst the results may not always feel like "real science" (example - students are offered four beers, & the study showed that people would rather choose something different to the othersin order to show individuality, dubiousin my view), some of the studies reveal useful insight into the way the mind works & how business manipulates it.

It's actually surprisingly easy to read, aside from a sludgy section on social & market norms (the difference between, say, taking a bottle of wine round your friends house because they brought one round yours, as opposed to paying them back for bringing it). There is righteous criticism that this book takes too much of a US stance, & there are too many slants on the US health system for instance (maybe because he experienced so much first hand).

Overall, a very enjoyable bed time read, & I shall look carefully at the deals I'm offeredin a supermarket from now on.

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